Commerce and Management
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Item Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Sri Lanka(Department of Finance, University of Kelaniya., 2022) Rathnayake, R. M. S. S.; Dissanayake, D. M. R. U.Purpose: The increasing trend of non-performing loans in Sri Lanka threatens the banking system. This study attempts to identify the determinants of non-performing loans in licensed commercial banks in Sri Lanka to fill the void in the finance research arena. Methodology: This study is carried out with a sample of eight licensed commercial banks using macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors: the real interest rate, annual GDP growth rate, annual inflation rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate, the efficiency of the bank, bank size, lending rate, and ROA. Financial data were analyzed for the period of 2008-2018 using panel data regression analysis. Findings: Results show that GDP growth rate, Exchange rate, Unemployment rate, inflation rate, and bank size have a significant effect on non-performing loans in the Sri Lankan banking industry. However, bank efficiency and return on asset (ROA) do not significantly correlate with NPLs. Among these relationships, only the exchange rate shows a positive relationship with the NPL, whereas all other variables show a negative relationship. Implications: According to the study's findings, it is recommended that Sri Lankan commercial banks have their focal point on credit risk management based on maximizing return on its assets while keeping its non-performing loans within acceptable limits.Item The Impact of Exchange Rates on Stock Market Performance in Sri Lanka(Department of Finance, Faculty of Commerce and Management Studies, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka., 2025) Rajapaksha, R. A. R. A.; Gunasekara, A. L.Introduction: The relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in developing economies is a topic of great interest to investors, researchers and policymakers. This paper examines the impact of exchange rates on the S&P SL20 index in Sri Lanka. This includes the exchange rate behavior of the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD and JPY against the Sri Lankan rupee. Apart from other factors in the economy, the behavior of exchange rates has made a difference in economic development and investor decisions. Therefore, the purpose of the research is to explore the relationship between exchange rates and the stock market in Sri Lanka in the short and long term. Methodology: This paper used monthly data from January 2010 to July 2024. After conducting unit root tests using ADF analysis for stationarity of all variables, the strength of association between the dependent and independent variables is measured through a correlation analysis. The ARDL model elaborates on the short- and long-run impacts, as well as using a GARCH model that captures the effect of the volatility of exchange rates on stock market returns. Descriptive statistics represent data development through the study period with the help of tables or graphs. Findings: Descriptive statistics show positive means for all variables but non-normal distributions with skewness and kurtosis. The ADF test confirmed stationarity, thus enabling further analysis. The USD has a significant negative impact, and both short- and long-run dynamics are highlighted through the ARDL model. The ARCH test does not show heterogeneity, while the GARCH model confirms volatility clusters and emphasizes the strong influence of the USD. The results emphasize that not all exchange rate movements have the same impact on the performance of the S&P SL20, and that some currencies strongly determine its performance. Conclusion: This paper highlights the relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in Sri Lanka. Foreign exchange stability is important for market outcomes and suggests currency stabilization strategies that minimize market crashes. Investors should consider how to manage their investments against the exchange rate to maximize returns when investing in the stock market. Due to the large differences between past literature reviews and the current database and the differences in the variables considered, the current research is bound to shed new light on the short-run and long-run relationship.Item Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectorial Share Price Indices in Sri Lanka(Department of Accountancy, Faculty of Commerce and Management Studies, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2016) Senarathna, K.A.H.K.; Rathnasiri, U.A.H.A.In the present turbulent environmental setting in Sri Lanka, it is paramount important to investigate the fluctuations in share prices with the changes in different macro-economic variables. The objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables on sectorial share price indices in Sri Lanka. Sectorial price indices from six business sectors were selected as dependent variable. Exchange rate, Treasury bill rate (Interest rate), Consumer Price Index (Inflation rate) and money supply were selected as independent variables. Multiply regression analysis was carried out to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and sectorial share price indices by using monthly data from 2006 to 2015. Analysis revealed that macro-economic variables had significant influence for variation of sectorial share price indices in Sri Lanka. Moreover the study showed that money supply is most influential factor to determine the sectorial share price indices for all selected sectors. Exchange rate and Interest rate were showed significant negative impact on share prices for all selected sectors. The study gives meaningful insight to prevailing literature and it gives practical implication for investors, stock market regulators and policy makers and makes foundation for future research to study the macroeconomic variables on different sectors separately.Item The Relationship between Short-term Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Sri Lanka(Department of Accountancy, Faculty of Commerce and Management Studies, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2016) Weerakoon W.P.P.K.; Jameel A.L.M.The issue on the relationship between stock market performance and the interest rate has been discussed by economist and researchers since both play important roles in influencing one nation’s economic development. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock market performance for Sri Lankan stock market using the data from July 2005 to June 2015. We used three-month Treasury bill rate as the proxy for the short-term interest rate and All Share Price Index (ASPI) as the proxy for the stock market performance. In addition to the short-term interest rate, the regression model consists of other three important macroeconomic variables such as money supply, consumer price index and exchange rate in order to extract the effect of monetary policy, country’s price level and foreign exchange rate on the stock market performance. The Multiple regression results in displays that the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock market performance exist as significantly negative. Further, the study found that the exchange rate and inflation rate have negative and money supply has a positive relationship with ASPI. The findings of the study hold practical implications for policy makers, stock market regulators, investors, and stock market analysts.Item A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Inflation in Sri Lanka(2011) Kesavarajah, M.This study attempts to analyze the experience of inflation in Sri Lanka for the period 1978 to 2010 using the econometric framework of Johanson and Juselius cointegration approach, vector error correction model(VECM) and Granger causality analysis. The Annual time series data drawn from various annual reports of Central Bank of Sri Lanka were used in this study. The empirical results of the study indicate the existence of long run dynamic relationships among the variables. Vector error correction model shows that money supply growth, budget deficit, and exchange rate depreciation have significant positive effects on inflation. Evidence from Granger causality analysis suggests the existence of unidirectional causality from money supply to inflation, exchange rate to inflation and budget deficit to inflation is significant, while the causal relationship from inflation to money supply, exchange rate and budget deficit is insignificant. Hence, the results of this study emphasize the need to put in place a stable macroeconomic policy environment relating to these variables in an effort to maintain price stability, since low inflation would enhance economic growth.