Commerce and Management
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Item Theoretical structure of a tourism focused CGE model for measuring the economic impact of an economy(München, Germany, 2017) Fernando, Sriyantha.Measuring the contribution of tourism to a national economy has always been a frustrating exercise. Tourism does not have specific products. It represents the sum of expenditure by travellers for wide range of products. It is not possible to identify tourism as a single "industry" in the national accounts, its value to the economy is not readily revealed. As a result of the absence of tourism in official economic statistics, there is often an on-going battle to establish tourism credibility as an economic activity and generator of income in the economy. As a result, a significant volume of tourism research over the past few decades have focussed on the development and use of a variety of economic techniques aimed at quantifying the effects of tourism on an economy. In conventional literature has proven that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling is the best applied tool addressing and analysing tourism related issues in an economy. The paper provided a complete description of the theoretical structure of the CGE-Tourism including all equations and variables by using relevant Excerpts for different blocks of equations in the TABLO file associated with the GEMPACK software used to operationalise the model. The incorporation of tourism using the dummy sector approach into an ORANI type CGE model as an extension and can be considered as the main contribution of this study to the CGE modelling literature for an economy. This is a clear departure from the traditional methods used for tourism modelling in an economy. This model can be used to simulate the economic impact of the tourism boom in an economy.Item SLCGE-Tourism: a computable general equilibrium model of the Sri Lankan economy for tourism policy analysis,(Griffith Business School, Discussion Papers - Economics, 2015) Fernando, Sriyantha.; Bandara, J.S.; Smith, C.; Pham, T.Following the end of nearly three decades of civil war in May 2009, Sri Lanka has witnessed an unprecedented post-war tourism boom beyond its expectation. Recognising the key role that the tourism industry can play in post-war development the Sri Lankan government launched a Tourism Development Strategy (TDS). There is a dearth of research on integrated economy-wide modelling capable of simulating the effects of tourism related policies and measuring the impact of the current tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy quantitatively. This paper attempts to fill this gap by developing a tourism focused Computable General Equilibrium Model of the Sri Lankan Economy (SLCGE–Tourism) and creating a suitable database for its operationalisation. The usefulness of this model is demonstrated via a policy simulation aimed at examining the economy-wide effects of tourism growth on the Sri Lankan economy. The results of the simulation support the view that tourism can play a major role in post-war development in Sri Lanka in terms of enhancing economic growth and employment generation.Item Managing Tourism-Led Development Strategy in Post-war Sri Lanka.(Sri Lanka Journal of Business Economics, 2014) Smith, C.; Bandara, J. S.; Liyanaarachchi, Susantha.; Fernando, Sriyantha.The Sri Lankan tourism industry has been booming since the end of war in 2009. Considering the key role that tourism can play in post-war economic development, the Sri Lankan government launched a Tourism Development Strategy (TDS). This study has evaluated the feasibility of achieving the targets of the TDS by building a simple tourism demand model and by undertaking a qualitative comparative assessment with a selected tourism booms in a number of war-affected countries. The findings suggest that the TDS targets are achievable provided the country manages to expand supply of tourism related infrastructure (hard as well as soft) in a price competitive manner.Item Political violence and volatility in international tourist arrivals: the case of Sri Lanka(Tourism Analysis, 2013) Fernando, Sriyantha.; Bandara, J.S.; Liyanaarachchi, Susantha.; Jayathilaka, Ruwan.; Smith, C.In recent years, a growing body of literature has emerged exploring the link between dramatic fluctuations in tourist arrivals to particular destinations and events such as political violence and financial shocks. Sri Lanka is one such destination that provides a fascinating case study of this link. That is, international tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka have experienced notable fluctuations during the nearly three decades of civil war, particularly between 1983 and 2009. For the first time, an attempt is made in this study to model the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. The results reveal a significant seasonal effect in tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. First, the study demonstrates the existence of a large volatility in monthly tourist arrivals into Sri Lanka from 1978, stemming from the negative publicity in the print and electronic media and the travel warnings issued by Western countries relating to in-country conflict. Furthermore, the results suggest that major war-related incidents are strong enough to reduce the tourist arrival numbers by 5.2% per month compared to a period when peace is restored in the country.Item Tourism in Sri Lanka. In M. C. Hall, & S. J. Page (Eds.),(The Routledge Handbook of Tourism in Asia, 2016) Fernando, Sriyantha.; Bandara, J.S.; Smith, C.Although Sri Lanka has a long history as a tourist destination, there have been ups and downs in the tourism industry in Sri Lanka in recent decades, particularly between 2003 and 2009 due to political violence andthe separatist war interspersed with a number of peace episodes. Since the end of separatist war in May 2009 tourism in Sri Lanka has been booming and it has been ranked as one of the top tourist destinations in the world for the past few years. The purpose of this chapter is to present an overview on tourism in Sri Lanka in this handbook. The chapter mainly focuses on Sri Lanka’s attractiveness to tourists, historical evolution of its policies towards modern day tourism, the changing patterns of tourist arrivals during different episodes of war and peace, and the recent tourism boom and the associated national tourism development strategy (TDS).Item Managing the Post-War Tourism Development in Sri Lanka(International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2016) Fernando, Sriyantha.Sri Lankan tourism has managed to recover quickly since the end of war in 2009. After recognising the role of post-war tourism, the Sri Lankan government has launched a Tourism Development Strategy (TDS) plan. Sri Lanka Tourism is confident that the new strategic direction will move the country forward as a most sought travel destination in Asia while all stakeholders of the industry reap its benefits. This study evaluated the post-war tourism boom and the targets of Sri Lankan government’s TDS and empirically explored the targets set in the TDS by using a simple econometric model. The econometric analysis suggests that tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka would increase by 21.5 per cent per year if the peaceful environment continues in Sri Lanka. There are a number of impediments to be recognised in achieving the targets set out TDS. It is clear that within the next few years, tourism industry will become a sustainable sector in the Sri Lankan economy being the top GDP contributor within next few years.Item Tourism in Sri Lanka and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the effects of post-war tourism boom(München, Germany, 2015) Fernando, Sriyantha.The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature. The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post- independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009 Secondly, it carries out two systematic econometric studies on tourism demand and volatility within the Sri Lankan context by using well-recognised econometric techniques. In the first econometric study, data on monthly tourism arrivals is used to model volatility of tourist arrivals for the first time in the case of Sri Lanka and as such this represents a contribution to the tourism literature in Sri Lanka. As generally accepted, and in common with many other tourist destinations, the empirical results of this study demonstrate that the Sri Lankan tourism industry is very sensitive to political violence, exchange rate changes, and seasonal variations. The analysis suggests that significant increases in political violence lowered tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and created a substantial amount of volatility in tourism demand. The second econometric study explores empirically whether the targets set in the recent Tourism Development Strategy (TDS) by the Sri Lankan government are achievable or realistic by using a simple econometric model. The econometric analysis suggests that tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka would increase by 26 per cent per year if a peaceful environment can be maintained in Sri Lanka. This is broadly consistent with the targets set out in the TDS without the benefit of systematic modelling work. The second knowledge gap was that there was a lack of an integrated economy-wide modelling model capable of use for examining the impact of tourism on the Sri Lankan economy. This study has addressed this knowledge gap by developing a tourism-focused SLCGE–Tourism model. Its usefulness has been demonstrated by examining the economy- wide effects of the recent tourism boom and associated policy targets on the Sri Lankan economy in the second part of the thesis. The projected results of the model support the view that tourism can play a major role in the post-war development in Sri Lanka in terms of economic growth and employment generation. However, both the macro and sectoral results demonstrate that the expansion of tourism will not assist the economy without imposing some negative impacts on some other sectors in the economy. It is clear from the results of policy simulations carried out with the model that a tourism boom may lead to ‘Dutch disease’ type effects. The manufacturing export sectors, such as wearing apparel, may suffer as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate due to the tourism boom. The results also demonstrate that positive effects of a tourism boom on the economy would be much stronger if supply side constraints facing the tourism sector were able to be removed (or at least reduced significantly). The empirical findings of this study have important policy implications and the modelling of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using the newly developed tourism-focused SLCGE–Tourism model opens up new areas for future research.Item Demand, volatility and post-war tourism in Sri Lanka(München, Germany, 2016) Fernando, Sriyantha.Historically Sri Lanka has always been a tourist destination for centuries because of its strategic location and uniqueness. Although Sri Lankan tourism sector has been growing since 1967, International tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka have experienced notable fluctuations during the nearly three decades of civil war, particularly between 1983 and 2009. Sri Lankan tourism has managed to recover quickly since the end of war in 2009. After recognising the role of post-war tourism, the Sri Lankan government has launched the Tourism Development Strategies for the period 2011-2016. Firstly, The paper carried out systematic statistical analysis for Sri Lankan tourism focussing in particular on the civil war and associated political violence. Secondly, the paper empirically explored whether the targets set in the TDS by the Sri Lankan government are achievable or realistic by using a simple econometric model. Furthermore, post-war tourism development and the tourism boom are being evaluated within the context of the current political and economic situation. The empirical results of the first study demonstrating that the Sri Lankan tourism industry is very sensitive to political violence, exchange rate changes, and seasonal variations. The analysis suggests that significant increases in political violence lowered tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and created a substantial amount of volatility in tourism demand. The results of the second study indicate that the Sri Lankan tourism industry was in a favorable position to achieve the targets until 2014 but missing the targets in 2015 and it is a challenge to achieve of 2.5 million tourism arrivals by 2016. A number of policy inferences can be drawn from this study. Given the limited resources available to the Sri Lankan government and the competing claims on these resources, development of strategies for and active promotion of public- private partnerships aimed at creating new tourism related infrastructure (hotel resorts, cruise line facilities, road transport upgrades, etc.) are recommended. There is should be a consideration for promoting the country as a price competitive and safe tourism destination. Finally, the country has to maintain political stability and work towards reconciliation process with improved governance and maintaining rules of law in order for the development strategy to be fully realized.Item The Tourism-Led Development Strategy in Sri Lanka.(Journal of Business and Technology, 2017) Fernando, Sriyantha.Sri Lanka has an ability to become one of the best tourism countries (TCs) in Asia. However, it missed opportunities on a number of occasions due to inappropriate economic policies, continuous political violence and wars. Since 1983 the Sri Lankan tourism sector was seriously affected by the nearly three decades of separatist war which ended in May 2009. Immediately after the end of war tourism in Sri Lanka bounced back and it now has become the engine of economic growth in post war Sri Lanka. In this paper, a historical analysis has been undertaken to demonstrate how Sri Lanka miss matched their development strategies in terms of tourism, although the country had potential to attract record number of tourists. The post-war tourism boom has given Sri Lankans and the Sri Lankan tourism sector new hopes and optimism. This paper demonstrates that the Sri Lankan tourism sector has potential and opportunities to play a vital role in the post-war inclusive development strategy in terms of generating much needed foreign exchange, poverty alleviation via employment generation, accelerating economic growth and uplifting living standards of all Sri Lankans.