Abstract:
OBJECTIVES: To project hospitalisation trends due to selected non-communicable diseases (NCD) from 2005 to 2010. DESIGN: Morbidity data, maintained at the Medical Statistics Unit of the Ministry of Health, from 1981 to 2000, were used to model trends of hospitalisation due to diabetes mellitus, hypertensive disease and ischaemic heart disease. Linear and quadratic trends were used to model morbidity trends. RESULTS: For all three diseases considered, the increase in the incidence of hospitalisation is exponential. An increase is estimated in the incidence of hospitalisation by 36%, 40% and 29% due to diabetes mellitus, hypertensive disease and ischaemic heart disease, respectively, in 2010 as compared to 2005. The greatest burden and the largest increase in the rate of hospitalisation will be due to hypertensive disease. CONCLUSIONS: There will be an exponential increase in hospitalisation due to diabetes, hypertension and ischaemic heart disease. The health sector should provide additional resources to meet the demand.