Early predictors of severe dengue in adults

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the main infectious disease causing high morbidity and mortality among adults in dengue endemic regions of Sri Lanka. Prediction of severe illness at an earlier stage of infection helps to arrive at management decisions. Studies to identify predictors of severe dengue in adults are sparse. METHODS: In order to identify predictors of severe dengue by the third day of illness, symptoms, signs and investigation results of first 3 days of illness between two groups A and B (defined below) were compared in a prospective cohort study of consecutive 117 adult patients (age>12 years) with serologically confirmed dengue admitted to the professorial medical unit, Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka over 6 month from 1st of March 2011. Group A (Severe illness): development of ascites or pleural effusions (evidence of fluid leakage), compensated shock and profound shock (as defined by WHO guidelines for Dengue 2010), Group B: all others who did not fall into Group A. Severity of symptoms was assessed by a visual analogue scale, and rest of the clinical parameters, investigation results were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Of the 117 adults (95 males) mean age 31.95years (SD=13.34); 27 fell into Group A and 90 into group B. On the 3rd day of illness, mean Aspartate aminotransferase (AST); Group A 260 iu/L (SD=168.8) vs Group B-145 iu/L (SD=135.11) (p=0.005). Mean Alanine aminotransferase (ALT); Group A-247 iu/L (SD=161.5) vs Group B-105iu/L (SD-91.5) (p=0.002). None of the symptoms, signs and other investigations including platelet count, packed cell volume (PCV) and white blood cell count was significantly different. Analysis of the whole 117, pearson correlation test showed a positive correlation of AST(r=0.3) (p=0.038) and ALT(r=0.3) (P=0.045) with PCV and a negative correlation (r=-0.3) with platelet count (p=0.014). AST(r=0.25) and ALT (r=0.3) on day 3 was positively correlated with development of malena at any stage (p=0.05). CONCLUSION: Higher AST and ALT levels on 3rd day of dengue seems to be useful predictors of severe dengue. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.