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Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy in Complex Situations

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dc.contributor.author Cooray, T.M.J.A.
dc.date.accessioned 2015-03-18T05:05:04Z
dc.date.available 2015-03-18T05:05:04Z
dc.date.issued 2005
dc.identifier.citation Cooray, T.M.J.A., 2005. Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy in Complex Situations, In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Sri Lanka Studies, University of Kelaniya, pp 32. en_US
dc.identifier.uri
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/5802
dc.description.abstract Information about the current and forecast levels of tourism and its contribution to the economy is important for policymaking by businesses and governments. Traditional forecasting methods can provide reasonable forecasts in the context of predicable changes. However, forecasting becomes problematic in the context of both predictable changes and less predictable domestic or international shocks. This paper demonstrates the ways in which an integrated model, combining traditional forecasting methods and quantifiable scenario forecasts, can be used to examine complex combinations of events. The model is applied to Sri Lanka’s tourism indicators, which provide a picture of tourism in the Sri Lankan economy, with traditional forecasting methods and quantifiable scenario forecasts. Results are provided for a combination of changes in relative exchange rates, income of major origin countries and a positive shock to tourism demand, to demonstrate the integrated model's ability to take account of the complex multiple events that affect tourism destinations. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher University of Kelaniya en_US
dc.subject Tourism en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.subject Policy Complex en_US
dc.title Model for Tourism Forecasting and Policy in Complex Situations en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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