Abstract:
The present study was carried out to fit a mathematical model to describe the variation pattern of monthly mean maximum air temperature in Colombo in order to predict the future values. Monthly mean maximum temperature values for a period of over 35 years were used for the analysis : Time series statistical methods were considered to study the trend and seasonal , cyclic and irregular components. The long term pattern in tlie variation of,monthly mean maximum temperature in Colombo appears to be dominated by a pronounced seasonal effect. The highest seasonal effect
was found to be in March . It was found that the temprature of a particular month depends on the lagged temperature values of the two preceding months.
