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Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study

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dc.contributor.author Thulani, U.B.
dc.contributor.author Mettananda, K.C.D.
dc.contributor.author Warnakulasuriya, D.T.D.
dc.contributor.author Peiris, T.S.G.
dc.contributor.author Kasturiratne, K.T.A.A.
dc.contributor.author Ranawaka, U.K.
dc.contributor.author Chackrewarthy, S.
dc.contributor.author Dassanayake, A.S.
dc.contributor.author Kurukulasooriya, S.A.F.
dc.contributor.author Niriella, M.A.
dc.contributor.author de Silva, S.T.
dc.contributor.author Pathmeswaran, A.P.
dc.contributor.author Kato, N.
dc.contributor.author de Silva, H.J.
dc.contributor.author Wickremasinghe, A.R.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-12T07:01:19Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-12T07:01:19Z
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.identifier.citation Journal of the Ceylon College of Physicians. 2020; 51(Supplement 1): 12. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 2448-9514
dc.identifier.issn 0379-802X
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/21954
dc.description Oral Presentation Abstract (OP12), Ceylon College of Physicians Annual Conference 2020, 19th-21st November. Colombo, Sri Lanka. en_US
dc.description.abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There are no cardiovascular(CV)-risk prediction models specifically for Sri Lankans. Different risk prediction models not validated among Sri Lankans are being used to predict CV-risk of Sri Lankans. We validated the WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) risk prediction charts prospectively in a population-based cohort of Sri Lankans. METHOD: We selected participants between 40-64 years, by stratified random sampling of the Ragama Medical Officer of Health area in 2007 and followed them up for 10-years. Risk predictions for 10-years were calculated using WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) charts with- and without-cholesterol in 2007. We identified all new-onset cardiovascular events(CVE) from 2007-2017 by interviewing participants and perusing medical-records/death-certificates in 2017. We validated the risk predictions against observed CVEs. RESULTS: Baseline cohort consisted of 2517 participants (males 1132 (45%), mean age 53.7 (SD: 6.7 years). We observed 215 (8.6%) CVEs over 10-years. WHO/ISH (SEAR B) charts with­ and without-cholesterol predicted 9.3% (235/2517) and 4.2% (106/2517) to be of high CV-risk ≥20%), respectively. Risk predictions of both WHO/ISH (SEAR B) charts with- and without-cholesterol were in agreement in 2033/2517 (80.3%). Risk predictions of WHO/ISH (SEAR B) charts with and with­ out-cholesterol were in agreement with observed CVE percentages among all except in high­ risk females predicted by WHO/ISH (SEAR B) chart with-cholesterol (observed risk 15.3% (95% Cl 12.5 - 18.2%) and predicted risk 2::20%). CONCLUSIONS: WHO/ISH (SEAR B) risk charts provide good 10-year CV-risk predictions for Sri Lankans. The predictions of the two charts, with and without-cholesterol, appear to be in agreement but the chart with-cholesterol seems to be more predictive than the chart without-cholesterol. Risk charts are more predictive in males than in females. The predictive accuracy was best when stratified into two categories; low (<20%) and high (≥20%) risk. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Ceylon College of Physicians en_US
dc.subject Hypertension en_US
dc.title Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study en_US
dc.type Conference abstract en_US


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