Social Sciences
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Item Impact of Currency Depreciation on Growth, Exports & Industrialization: Evidence from Sri Lanka(International Journal of Academic Staff (IJAS – 2019), Volume 01, Issue 01. Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2019) Ramanayake, S.S.The present article focuses specifically on smart exchange rate policy and export oriented industrialization process to sustain growth in Sri Lanka. There is an extensive debate on the impact of currency depreciation (devaluation / undervaluation) on growth and exports; some scholars have argued that depreciation positively affects growth (especially in developing economies), but others contend that depreciation negatively affects growth in the long run. This paper discusses the existing literature on currency depreciation on growth and exports. Study argues that too much depreciation in the long-run causes declining growth process and exports in Sri Lanka. At the same time, long-run depreciation negates industrialization process. Furthermore, this study found that long-run depreciation caused the decline in Foreign Direct Investment, lead to the increase inflation and was therefore, harmful for country’s social welfare. Findings of this study suggest Sri Lanka should focus on export-based industrialization process to overcome current situation and sustain economic growth. In like manner, these implications are also suitable for most of the other developing countriesItem Nexus of Tourism and Economi Fluctuations in Srilanka(5th National Conference on Applied Social Statistics (NRCASS) - 2019, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2019) Jayakody, J. A. M. B.This is study of exploring the nexus between tourism and economic growth in Sri Lanka. Using the annually statics of central bank report. Tourism industry has become the reason for rapid growth in every economy. "A tourist is as an individual who for leisure or other purposes, temporarily leaves the place of residence for being hosted in a destination, activating successive economic effects that are worth investigating,” The objective of this is to explore two main elements of Sri Lankan economy. Those are Tourism and Economic growth in Sri Lanka during the period of 1977 - 2018. The is study obtained the relationship between economic growth and tourism earning during 1977-2018. These two variable have long term relationship. As a result of that which is causality between economic growth and tourism earning. Where economic growth only causes to tourism earnings not the other way around. Economic growth hypothesis in the phase of development since the priority of the tourism earnings had been understood only a few years ago. Due to the domestic war situation in the last years until 2009. Sri Lankan economy had become the upper economic growth rate in last years because of the Tourism industry. Easter day attack was the current affect to the economy. That is the affect for the economic growth of Sri Lanka. Obtain of this study of Sri Lankan Economic development that tourism should guide to economic growth in the future. The relationship measured by secondary data. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data and it revealed that there was a significant impact of tourism earnings on economic growth in Sri LankaItem The Effects of Foreign Grants and Foreign Debt on the Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: An Ardl Bounds Test Approach(5th National Conference on Applied Social Statistics (NRCASS) - 2019, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2019) Arachchi, I. A. J. I.Foreign grants (FG) and foreign debt (FD) are important sources to finance the development program in developing countries. The relative impact of FD and FG on economic growth has not been examined in Asia including Sri Lankan context. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of FD and FG on economic growth in Sri Lanka. The analysis was carried out for the period 1977 to 2017 using the variables, Gross domestic product (GDP), economic openness (MX), FG and FD. The data were collected from the annual report of Central Bank and all these variables are in constant prices. The Phillips-Perron unit root test results show that some variables are stationary at level and some variables are stationary their first difference. The GDP was used as proxy for economic growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test is employed to find out the long run equilibrium relationships between variables in the study. The ARDL bound test shows that there is a significant long run relationship between GDP and explanatory variables. FG affects GDP positively while FD does not affect statistically significantly in the long run. The results of error correction model estimation shows that the error correction term is significant and had negative sign which theoretically expected. The coefficient of the error correction term indicates that 23 percent of the disequilibrium error is corrected each year. This indicates that the response variable GDP moves towards long-run equilibrium path along with time. In the short run, FD and FG do not influence GDP significantly while LMX affects GDP significantly. Diagnostic tests attest that the results are robust. The CUSUM test confirms that the parameters are stable in the study period. In the Sri Lankan context, FG is favorable source compared to FD. FD has become a sensitive issue now in Sri Lanka as we need to large amount of repayment. Therefore, the government, policy makers need to design the policy regarding FD and FG considering the relative impacts of each variableItem Does Aging Population Strain on Economic Growth in Sri Lanka?(International Conference on Applied Social Statistics (ICASS) - 2019, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2019) Gunathilaka, G.Y.N.Increase in life expectancy and the decline in fertility rate increase the elderly population in a country making an imbalance in the population pyramid. By the year 2050 approximately two billion people will be aged 60 years and over and 400 million people will be aged 80 years and over globally (United Nations, 2013). Population aging has become a global phenomenon which has significant impacts on economic areas and it is both a triumph and a challenge. Increase in aging population increase old age dependency ratio. According to Hock and weil (2012), increment in old age dependency ratio is expected to reduce the disposable income of the working population and lead to further decline in the fertility rate. Theoretically, according to Bloom et al., (2003), increase in aging population makes positive, negative or neutral effect on macroeconomic growth in an economy. Physical capacity, consumption preferences and needs will change when an individual is getting old. An aging population leads to lower labor-force participation which will directly affect the country’s level of production, savings, taxation, transfer of wealth from one generation to another and finally to slowdown the economic growth. According to Prettner (2013), older individuals tend to save more and as a result, they provide more resources for investment, which positively affects economic growth. Lee and Mason (2007) indicated that increase in the elderly population will reduce the per capita income of all three generations of child, working group, and retiree and lead to a net decrease in the family’s total consumption level. Both the developed and developing countries are currently facing economic problems of global population ageings which affect economic growth dynamics of consumption and saving patterns (Albuquerque and Lopes, 2010; Li et al., 2012), human capital (Sharpe, 2011; Gobel and Zwick., 2012), and public social spending. In the very near future, Sri Lanka is becoming a country having the oldest people in the non-developed world and also one of the fastest aging countries in the world, like a more developed country. The proportion of elderly population in Sri Lanka is higher among the South Asian countries. In 2001, over 9% of Sri Lanka’s populations were 60 years of age and over, which is a relatively large elderly population for a developing country (United Nations,2003). Therefore, it is essential to examine the burden of aging population and prepare long term plans and innovations to mitigate the adverse effects of population aging. Hence, the current research and development and government policies should have to concern aging population in the country. In the context of increasing aging population, the time series analysis of the relationship between aging population and economic growth will be a significant research area for a developing country like Sri Lanka which was less focused before.Item An Analysis of Environmental Impacts of Tourism in Northern Areas of Pakistan: A Case of Organic Farming Hunza Valley(4th International Conference on Social Sciences 2018, Research Centre for Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Murtaza, S.H.; Dr.Nawaz, R.The paper aims to seek the effects of tourism on biodiversity (Variety of plants and animals life in a particular habitat) of Northern Areas of Pakistan considered as visitor’s paradise filled with colors of nature. It is believed that tourism leads to economic growth of a specific region, with spillover effect on national economy. Tourist industry needs massive arrangements like housing, transportation and infrastructural development; with a negative bearing on environment in form deforestation, air pollution, water pollution, land erosion and other ecological losses. An obvious consequence of tourist movement is influx of consumer goods produced in industrial towns; that will act as catalyst for polluting environment in form of plastic, heavy metals (A metal of relatively high density) and CFC’s (Chlorofluorocarbons: hazardous materials for nature). Furthermore inclusion in net of national economy serves as a detriment of local small scale village based industries. The paper aims to analyze the impacts generated by a boom in tourist industry on natural, social and economic ecology of northern areas of Pakistan through SWOT analysis and suggest remedies to cure environmental degradation by establishing environment friendly local economies of Hunza Valley of Pakistan.Item Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Application of SVAR Model(4th International Conference on Social Sciences 2018, Research Centre for Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Abdullahi, S.; Jibir, A.Since the oil boom of 1970’s, oil sector remained the dominant sector in the Nigerian Economy accounting for measure shares of export, revenue and foreign exchange earnings. This over dependence on oil has subjected the economy to high level of economic instability in response to external disturbances. A lot of efforts have been made by the government to diversify the economy, but failed due to corruption and lack of proper implementation. Most of the goods exported from Nigeria to other countries are primary commodities whose prices are highly volatile. Export diversification has a lot of advantages which include: boosting the country’s output, higher per capita income, rising foreign direct investment, improvement of terms of trade, reduction of export instability, stablisation of export earnings, increase in productivity among others. The study examines the long run and short run dynamic effects of export diversification on economic growth in Nigeria over the periods 1970 to 2015 using Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model. The findings of the study revealed that export diversification has significant positive impact on per capita income, foreign direct investment and economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study therefore, recommended that research and development as well as export promotion strategies should be properly designed and implemented.Item Topic: The Impact of the Financial Intermediation on Economic Growth in Sri Lanka(Research Centre for Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2016) Bodhinagoda, S.; Henegedara, M.The relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth has been well documented in the economic literature. A considerable body of the theoretical literature suggests a strong positive link between financial sector development and economic growth. But it is worth of identifying that actually there is a positive relationship between the financial intermediation and economic growth or not. Hence that the Purpose of this study is to examine whether the financial intermediation exactly leads to the economic growth in Sri Lanka .And in advance to examine the growth performances and financial intermediation policy framework in Sri Lanka and to suggest suitable policy recommendations in regarding the financial intermediation in Sri Lanka, to test the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth in Sri Lanka, are some of other sub objectives. In that way I’m going to use time series macro data for the period of 1977-2015 and data are gathered through the Central Bank reports, Journals and other related publications. In accordance to that I use several dimensions of the financial intermediation like Domestic credit provided by banking sector (% of GDP); Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP); Broad money (% of GDP); Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)and investment (% of GDP). As a preliminary step, using Time series and regression analysis I test the correlation between variables and Secondly, I compare this financial intermediation indicator with some dimension of economic growth. So using those various indicators of financial intermediation, this paper investigates the role of financial intermediation in stimulating economic growth in Sri Lankan Economy.