Medicine
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This repository contains the published and unpublished research of the Faculty of Medicine by the staff members of the faculty
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Item Empirical optimization of risk thresholds for dengue: an approach towards entomological management of Aedes mosquitoes based on larval indices in the Kandy District of Sri Lanka(BioMed Central, 2018) Udayanga, L.; Gunathilaka, N.; Iqbal, M.C.M.; Najim, M.M.M.; Pahalagedara, K.; Abeyewickreme, W.BACKGROUND: Larval indices such as Premise Index (PI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) are widely used to interpret the density of dengue vectors in surveillance programmes. These indices may be useful for forecasting disease outbreaks in an area. However, use of the values of these indices as alarm signals is rarely considered in control programmes. Therefore, the current study aims to propose threshold values for vector indices based on an empirical modeling approach for the Kandy District of Sri Lanka. METHODS: Monthly vector indices, viz PI, BI and CI, for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, of four selected dengue high risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the Kandy District from January 2010 to August 2017, were used in the study. Gumbel frequency analysis was used to calculate the exceedance probability of quantitative values for each individual larval index within the relevant MOH area, individually and to set up the threshold values for the entomological management of dengue vectors. RESULTS: Among the study MOH areas, Akurana indicated a relatively high density of both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, while Gangawata Korale MOH area had the lowest. Based on Ae. aegypti, threshold values were defined for Kandy as low risk (BIagp > 1.77), risk (BIagp > 3.23), moderate risk (BIagp > 4.47) and high risk (BIagp > 6.23). In addition, PI > 6.75 was defined as low risk, while PI > 9.43 and PI>12.82 were defined as moderate and high risk, respectively as an average. CONCLUSIONS: Threshold values recommended for Ae. aegypti (primary vector for dengue) along with cut-off values for PI (for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus), could be suggested as indicators for decision making in vector control efforts. This may also facilitate the rational use of financial allocations, technical and human resources for vector control approaches in Sri Lanka in a fruitful manner.Item Evaluation of the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Akurana, Central Province, Sri Lanka(Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science, 2015) Udayanga, N.W.B.A.L.; Gunathilaka, P.A.D.H.N.; Iqbal, M.C.M.; Kusumawathie, P.H.D.; Najim, M.M.M.; Amerasinghe, U.S.; Abeyewickreme, W.Renowned as the world's fastest growing vector borne disease, dengue has become one of the major health issues in Sri Lanka leading to an alarming concern due to recent outbreaks throughout the country. Despite the immense efforts taken by the relevant authorities to reduce the rate of mortality, the average number of dengue cases recorded in each year remains around 30,000-35,000 without being changed significantly over time in Sri Lanka. Investigation of the trends in spatial and temporal distribution patterns of dengue is often treasured in the drafting and implementation of management/action plans to ensure effective management of dengue epidemics at regional scale. Thus, a statistical and geo informatics based analysis of the recent trends in dengue distribution was carried out to identify spatial and temporal trends in distribution patterns of Dengue in the Akurana Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area. Monthly records of reported dengue cases from 2010 to 2014 of the Akurana MOH area were obtained and were subjected to a scatter plot analysis in MINITAB (version 14.12.0) to identify the temporal patterns in the recorded dengue cases. Spatial maps of the recorded dengue case distribution in each GND for each month and for the whole study period were prepared by using Arc GIS 10.1. The spatial and temporal variations of dengue outbreak distribution within the Akurana MOH (at GND level) were analyzed to identify the recent trends in dengue incidence. Akurana, Bulugahathenna, Dippitiya, Dunuwila, Konakalagala and Neeralla localities could be identified as areas with relatively high risk to dengue outbreaks throughout the study period, while localities such as Balakanduwa, Delgasgoda, Delgasthenna, Malgamandeniya, Marahela, Palleweliketiya and Udawelikatiya emerged as areas with low risk. As suggested by the results of the paired-Chi square test [>Χ2 (30, 0.95) = 43.773], the emergence of dengue outbreaks indicated a significantly declining trend of recorded dengue cases in most of the GNDs (Aswadduma, Delgasgoda, Kurugoda, Malgamandeniya, Palleweliketiya and Walahena etc.) during the recent years. The evaluation of the trends in temporal and spatial distribution of dengue outbreaks at the localized level, could be recommended as a useful tool in the planning and implementation of action plans to control the rise of dengue, while evaluating the efficacy of already implemented control measures at regional scale.