Medicine
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This repository contains the published and unpublished research of the Faculty of Medicine by the staff members of the faculty
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Item Development of a risk prediction model for postpartum onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, following gestational diabetes; the lifestyle InterVention in gestational diabetes (LIVING) study(Elsevier, 2024) Belsti, Y.; Moran, L.J.; Goldstein, R.; Mousa, A.; Cooray, S.D.; Baker, S.; Gupta, Y.; Patel, A.; Tandon, N.; Ajanthan, S.; John, R.; Naheed, A.; Chakma, N.; Lakshmi, J.K.; Zoungas, S.; Billot, L.; Desai, A.; Bhatla, N.; Prabhakaran, D.; Gupta, I.; De Silva, H.A.; Kapoor, D.; Praveen, D.; Farzana, N.; Enticott, J.; Teede, H.AIMS This study aimed to develop a prediction model for identifying a woman with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) post-birth.METHODS Utilising data from 1299 women in the Lifestyle Intervention IN Gestational Diabetes (LIVING) study, two models were developed: one for pregnancy and another for postpartum. Key predictors included glucose test results, medical history, and biometric indicators.RESULTS Of the initial cohort, 124 women developed T2DM within three years. The study identified seven predictors for the antenatal T2DM risk prediction model and four for the postnatal one. The models demonstrated good to excellent predictive ability, with Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) values of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72 to 0.80) and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.88) for the antenatal and postnatal models, respectively. Both models underwent rigorous validation, showing minimal optimism in predictive capability. Antenatal model, considering the Youden index optimal cut-off point of 0.096, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 70.97%, 70.81%, and 70.82%, respectively. For the postnatal model, considering the cut-off point 0.086, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 81.40%, 75.60%, and 76.10%, respectively.CONCLUSIONS These models are effective for predicting T2DM risk in women with GDM, although external validation is recommended before widespread application.Item Antenatal oral glucose tolerance test abnormalities in the prediction of future risk of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes: Results from the living study(Blackwell Publishing Asia, 2024) Gupta, Y.; Kapoor, D.; Lakshmi, J.K.; Praveen, D.; Santos, J.A.; Billot, L.; Naheed, A.; De Silva, H.A.; Gupta, I.; Farzana, N.; John, R.; Ajanthan, S.; Bhatla, N.; Desai, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Prabhakaran, D.; Teede, H.; Zoungas, S.; Patel, A.; Tandon, N.OBJECTIVES To explore associations between type and number of abnormal glucose values on antenatal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with postpartum diabetes in South Asian women diagnosed with gestational diabetes (GDM) using International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria.METHODS This post-hoc evaluation of the Lifestyle Intervention IN Gestational Diabetes (LIVING) study, a randomized controlled trial, was conducted among women with GDM in the index pregnancy, across 19 centers in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka. Postpartum diabetes (outcome) was defined on OGTT, using American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria.RESULTS We report data on 1468 women with GDM, aged 30.9 (5.0) years, and with median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 1.8 (1.4-2.4) years after childbirth following the index pregnancy. We found diabetes in 213 (14.5%) women with an incidence of 8.7 (7.6-10.0)/100 women-years. The lowest incidence rate was 3.8/100 women years, in those with an isolated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) abnormality, and highest was 19.0/100 women years in participants with three abnormal values. The adjusted hazard ratios for two and three abnormal values compared to one abnormal value were 1.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-2.54; p = .005) and 3.56 (95% CI, 2.46-5.16; p < .001) respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for the combined (combination of fasting and postglucose load) abnormalities was 2.61 (95% CI, 1.70-4.00; p < .001), compared to isolated abnormal FPG.CONCLUSIONS Risk of diabetes varied significantly depending upon the type and number of abnormal values on antenatal OGTT. These data may inform future precision medicine approaches such as risk prediction models in identifying women at higher risk and may guide future targeted interventions.Item Ambulatory blood pressure levels in individuals with uncontrolled clinic hypertension across Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka(Wiley, 2024) Zhu, A.; Ostbye, T.; Naheed, A.; de Silva, H.A.; Jehan, I.; Gandhi, M.; Chakma, N.; Kasturiratne, A.; Samad, Z.; Jafar, T.H.Hypertension is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease in South Asia. The authors aimed to assess the cross-country differences in 24-h ambulatory, daytime, and nighttime systolic blood pressure (SBP) among rural population with uncontrolled clinic hypertension in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The authors studied patients with uncontrolled clinic hypertension (clinic BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg) who underwent ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) during the baseline assessment as part of a community-based trial. The authors compared the distribution of ABPM profiles of patients across the three countries, specifically evaluating ambulatory SBP levels with multivariable models that adjusted for patient characteristics. Among the 382 patients (mean age, 58.3 years; 64.7% women), 56.5% exhibited ambulatory hypertension (24-h ambulatory BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg), with wide variation across countries: 72.6% (Bangladesh), 50.0% (Pakistan), and 51.0% (Sri Lanka; P < .05). Compared to Sri Lanka, adjusted mean 24-h ambulatory, daytime, and nighttime SBP were higher by 12.24 mmHg (95% CI 4.28-20.20), 11.96 mmHg (3.87-20.06), and 12.76 mmHg (4.51-21.01) in Bangladesh, separately. However, no significant differences were observed between Pakistan and Sri Lanka (P > .05). Additionally, clinic SBP was significantly associated with 24-h ambulatory (mean 0.38, 95% CI 0.28-0.47), daytime (0.37, 0.27-0.47), and nighttime SBP (0.40, 0.29-0.50) per 1 mmHg increase. The authors observed substantial cross-country differences in the distribution of ABPM profiles among patients with uncontrolled clinic hypertension in rural South Asia. The authors findings indicated the need to incorporate 24-h BP monitoring to mitigate cardiovascular risk, particularly in Bangladesh.Item The incidence and risk factors of postpartum diabetes in women from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka (South Asia) with prior gestational diabetes mellitus: Results from the LIVING study(Elsevier, 2023) Gupta, Y.; Kapoor, D.; Lakshmi, J.K.; Praveen, D.; Santos, J.A.; Billot, L.; Naheed, A.; de Silva, H.A.; Gupta, I.; Farzana, N.; John, R.; Ajanthan, S.; Bhatla, N.; Desai, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Prabhakaran, D.; Teede, H.; Zoungas, S.; Patel, A.; Tandon, N.; LIVING Collaborative GroupAIM: To study, the incidence and risk factors for postpartum diabetes (DM), in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) from South Asia (Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka), followed for nearly two years after delivery. METHODS: Women with prior GDM diagnosed using IADPSG criteria were invited at 19 centres across Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka for an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) following childbirth, and were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial. The glycaemic category (outcome) was defined from an OGTT based on American Diabetes Association criteria. RESULTS: Participants (n = 1808) recruited had a mean ± SD age of 31.0 ± 5.0 years. Incident DM was identified, between childbirth and the last follow-up, in 310 (17.1 %) women [incidence 10.75/100 person years], with a median follow-up duration of 1.82 years after childbirth. Higher age, lower education status, higher prior pregnancy count, prior history of GDM, family history of DM, and postpartum overweight/obese status were significantly associated with incident DM. Women in Bangladesh had a higher cumulative incidence of DM [16.49/100 person years] than in Sri Lanka [12.74/100 person years] and India [7.21/100 person years]. CONCLUSIONS: A high incidence of DM was found in women with prior GDM in South Asia, with significant variation between countries. Women from Bangladesh had a significantly higher pregnancy count, family history of DM and overweight/obese status, despite having significantly lower age, which could be responsible for their higher rates of DM. Registration of this study: The study was registered with the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI/2017/06/008744), Sri Lanka Clinical Trials Registry (SLCTR/2017/001), and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03305939).Item Post-intervention acceptability of multicomponent intervention for management of hypertension in rural Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka- a qualitative study(Public Library of Science, 2023) Jafar, T.H.; Tavajoh, S.; de Silva, H.A.; Naheed, A.; Jehan, I.; de Silva, C.K.; Chakma, N.; Huda, M.; Legido-Quigley, H.; COBRA-BPS Study Group.BACKGROUND: COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multicomponent, community health-worker (CHW)-led hypertension management program, has been shown to be effective in rural communities in South Asia. This paper presents the acceptability of COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention among the key stakeholders. METHODS: We conducted post-implementation interviews of 87 stakeholder including 23 community health workers (CHWs), 19 physicians and 45 patients in 15 rural communities randomized to COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention in in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. We used Theoretical Framework for Acceptability framework (TFA) with a focus on affective attitude, burden, ethicality, intervention coherence, opportunity cost, perceived effectiveness and self-efficacy. RESULTS: COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention was acceptable to most stakeholders. Despite some concerns about workload, most CHWs were enthusiastic and felt empowered. Physicians appreciated the training sessions and felt trusted by their patients. Patients were grateful to receive the intervention and valued it. However, patients in Pakistan and Bangladesh expressed the need for supplies of free medicines from the primary health facilities, while those in Sri Lanka were concerned about supplies' irregularities. All stakeholders favoured scaling-up COBRA-BPS at a national level. CONCLUSIONS: COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention is acceptable to the key stakeholders in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Community engagement for national scale-up of COBRA-BPS is likely to be successful in all three countries.Item Effects of a Lifestyle Intervention to Prevent Deterioration in Glycemic Status Among South Asian Women With Recent Gestational Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial(American Medical Association, 2022) Tandon, N.; Gupta, Y.; Kapoor, D.; Lakshmi, J.K.; Praveen, D.; Bhattacharya, A.; Billot, L.; Naheed, A.; de Silva, A.; Gupta, I.; Farzana, N.; John, R.; Ajanthan, S.; Divakar, H.; Bhatla, N.; Desai, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Prabhakaran, D.; Joshi, R.; Jan, S.; Teede, H.; Zoungas, S.; Patel, A.; LIVING Collaborative Group.Importance: Women with recent gestational diabetes (GDM) have increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Objective: To investigate whether a resource-appropriate and context-appropriate lifestyle intervention could prevent glycemic deterioration among women with recent GDM in South Asia. Design, setting, and participants: This randomized, participant-unblinded controlled trial investigated a 12-month lifestyle intervention vs usual care at 19 urban hospitals in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Participants included women with recent diagnosis of GDM who did not have type 2 diabetes at an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 3 to 18 months postpartum. They were enrolled from November 2017 to January 2020, and follow-up ended in January 2021. Data were analyzed from April to July 2021. Interventions: A 12-month lifestyle intervention focused on diet and physical activity involving group and individual sessions, as well as remote engagement, adapted to local context and resources. This was compared with usual care. Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was worsening category of glycemia based on OGTT using American Diabetes Association criteria: (1) normal glucose tolerance to prediabetes (ie, impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance) or type 2 diabetes or (2) prediabetes to type 2 diabetes. The primary analysis consisted of a survival analysis of time to change in glycemic status at or prior to the final patient visit, which occurred at varying times after 12 months for each patient. Secondary outcomes included new-onset type 2 diabetes and change in body weight. Results: A total of 1823 women (baseline mean [SD] age, 30.9 [4.9] years and mean [SD] body mass index, 26.6 [4.6]) underwent OGTT at a median (IQR) 6.5 (4.8-8.2) months postpartum. After excluding 160 women (8.8%) with type 2 diabetes, 2 women (0.1%) who met other exclusion criteria, and 49 women (2.7%) who did not consent or were uncontactable, 1612 women were randomized. Subsequently, 11 randomized participants were identified as ineligible and excluded from the primary analysis, leaving 1601 women randomized (800 women randomized to the intervention group and 801 women randomized to usual care). These included 600 women (37.5%) with prediabetes and 1001 women (62.5%) with normoglycemia. Among participants randomized to the intervention, 644 women (80.5%) received all program content, although COVID-19 lockdowns impacted the delivery model (ie, among 644 participants who engaged in all group sessions, 476 women [73.9%] received some or all content through individual engagement, and 315 women [48.9%] received some or all content remotely). After a median (IQR) 14.1 (11.4-20.1) months of follow-up, 1308 participants (81.2%) had primary outcome data. The intervention, compared with usual care, did not reduce worsening glycemic status (204 women [25.5%] vs 217 women [27.1%]; hazard ratio, 0.92; [95% CI, 0.76-1.12]; P = .42) or improve any secondary outcome. Conclusions and relevance: This study found that a large proportion of women in South Asian urban settings developed dysglycemia soon after a GDM-affected pregnancy and that a lifestyle intervention, modified owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, did not prevent subsequent glycemic deterioration. These findings suggest that alternate or additional approaches are needed, especially among high-risk individuals.Item Feasibility of a lifestyle intervention program for prevention of diabetes among women with prior gestational Diabetes Mellitus (LIVING Study) in South Asia: A formative research study(Frontiers Media S.A, 2020) Tewari, A.; Praveen, D.; Madhira, P.; Josyula, L.K.; Joshi, R.; Kokku, S.B.; Garg, V.; Rawal, I.; Chopra, K.; Chakma, N.; Ahmed, S.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Godamunne, P.; Lata, A.S.; Sahay, R.; Patel, T.; Gupta, Y.; Tandon, N.; Naheed, A.; Patel, A.; Kapoor, D.AIM: To refine and contextually adapt a postpartum lifestyle intervention for prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka. Materials and Methods: In-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with women with current diagnosis of GDM, and health care professionals involved in their management, to understand relevant local contextual factors for intervention optimization and implementation. This paper describes facilitators and barriers as well as feedback from participants on how to improve the proposed intervention. These factors were grouped and interpreted along the axes of the three main determinants of behavior-capability, opportunity, and motivation. IDIs and FGDs were digitally recorded, transcribed, and translated. Data-driven inductive thematic analysis was undertaken to identify and analyze patterns and themes. Results: Two interrelated themes emerged from the IDIs and FGDs: (i) The lifestyle intervention was acceptable and considered to have the potential to improve the existing model of care for women with GDM; and (ii) Certain barriers such as reduced priority of self-care, and adverse societal influences postpartum need to be addressed for the improvement of GDM care. Based on the feedback, the intervention was optimized by including messages for family members in the content of the intervention, providing options for both text and voice messages as reminders, and finalizing the format of the intervention session delivery. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of contextual factors in influencing postpartum care and support for women diagnosed with GDM in three South Asian countries. It indicates that although provision of postpartum care is complex, a group lifestyle intervention program is highly acceptable to women with GDM, as well as to health care professionals, at urban hospitals.Item Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka(Elsevier, 2021) Finkelstein, E.A.; Krishnan, A.; Naheed, A.; Jehan, I.; de Silva, H.A.; Gandhi, M.; Lim, C.W.; Chakma, N.; Ediriweera, D.S.; Khan, J.; Kasturiratne, A.; Hirani, S.; Solayman, A.K.M.; Jafar, T.H.; COBRA-BPS study group.BACKGROUND: COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multi-component hypertension management programme that is led by community health workers, has been shown to be efficacious at reducing systolic blood pressure in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In this study, we aimed to assess the budget required to scale up the programme and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: In a cluster-randomised trial of COBRA-BPS, individuals aged 40 years or older with hypertension who lived in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were deemed eligible for inclusion. Costs were quantified prospectively at baseline and during 2 years of the trial. All costs, including labour, rental, materials and supplies, and contracted services were recorded, stratified by programme activity. Incremental costs of scaling up COBRA-BPS to all eligible adults in areas covered by community health workers were estimated from the health ministry (public payer) perspective. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and Feb 28, 2017, 11 510 individuals were screened and 2645 were enrolled and included in the study. Participants were examined between May 8, 2016, and March 31, 2019. The first-year per-participant costs for COBRA-BPS were US$10•65 for Bangladesh, $10•25 for Pakistan, and $6•42 for Sri Lanka. Per-capita costs were $0•63 for Bangladesh, $0•29 for Pakistan, and $1•03 for Sri Lanka. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3430 for Bangladesh, $2270 for Pakistan, and $4080 for Sri Lanka, per cardiovascular disability-adjusted life year averted, which showed COBRA-BPS to be cost-effective in all three countries relative to the WHO-CHOICE threshold of three times gross domestic product per capita in each country. Using this threshold, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves predicted that the probability of COBRA-BPS being cost-effective is 79•3% in Bangladesh, 85•2% in Pakistan, and 99•8% in Sri Lanka. INTERPRETATION: The low cost of scale-up and the cost-effectiveness of COBRA-BPS suggest that this programme is a viable strategy for responding to the growing cardiovascular disease epidemic in rural communities in low-income and middle-income countries where community health workers are present, and that it should qualify as a priority intervention across rural settings in south Asia and in other countries with similar demographics and health systems to those examined in this study. FUNDING: The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the UK Department for International Development, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.Item A Community based intervention for managing hypertension in rural South Asia(Massachusetts Medical Society., 2020) Jafar, T. H.; Gandhi, M.; de Silva, H.A.; Jehan, I.; Naheed, A.; Finkelstein, E.A.; Turner, E.L.; Morisky, D.; Kasturiratne, A.; Khan, A.H.; Clemens, J.D.; Ebrahim, S.; Assam, P.N.; Feng, L.; COBRA-BPS Study Group.(Luke, N., de Silva, .C, Perera, M., Ranasinha, C.,Ediriweera, D)BACKGROUND: The burden of hypertension is escalating, and control rates are poor in low- and middle-income countries. Cardiovascular mortality is high in rural areas. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in rural districts in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. A total of 30 communities were randomly assigned to either a multicomponent intervention (intervention group) or usual care (control group). The intervention involved home visits by trained government community health workers for blood-pressure monitoring and counseling, training of physicians, and care coordination in the public sector. A total of 2645 adults with hypertension were enrolled. The primary outcome was reduction in systolic blood pressure at 24 months. Follow-up at 24 months was completed for more than 90% of the participants. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean systolic blood pressure was 146.7 mm Hg in the intervention group and 144.7 mm Hg in the control group. At 24 months, the mean systolic blood pressure fell by 9.0 mm Hg in the intervention group and by 3.9 mm Hg in the control group; the mean reduction was 5.2 mm Hg greater with the intervention (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2 to 7.1; P<0.001). The mean reduction in diastolic blood pressure was 2.8 mm Hg greater in the intervention group than in the control group (95% CI, 1.7 to 3.9). Blood-pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) was achieved in 53.2% of the participants in the intervention group, as compared with 43.7% of those in the control group (relative risk, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.35). All-cause mortality was 2.9% in the intervention group and 4.3% in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: In rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, a multicomponent intervention that was centered on proactive home visits by trained government community health workers who were linked with existing public health care infrastructure led to a greater reduction in blood pressure than usual care among adults with hypertension. (Funded by the Joint Global Health Trials scheme; COBRA-BPS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02657746.).Item Prevalence and correlates of cardiometabolic multimorbidity among hypertensive individuals: a cross-sectional study in rural South Asia-Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.(BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2019) Feng, L.; Jehan, I.; de Silva, H.A.; Naheed, A.; Farazdaq, H.; Hirani, S.; Kasturiratne, A.; Ranasinha, C.D.; Islam, M.T.; Siddiquee, A.T.; Jafar, T.H.OBJECTIVE: To determinate the prevalence and correlates of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), and their cross-country variation among individuals with hypertension residing in rural communities in South Asia. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: Rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2288 individuals with hypertension aged ≥40 years from the ongoing Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation- Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka clinical trial. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CMM was defined as the presence of ≥2 of the conditions: diabetes, chronic kidney disease, heart disease and stroke. Logistic regression was done to evaluate the correlates of CMM. RESULTS: About 25.4% (95% CI 23.6% to 27.2%) of the hypertensive individuals had CMM. Factors positively associated with CMM included residing in Bangladesh (OR 3.42, 95% CI 2.52 to 4.65) or Sri Lankan (3.73, 95% CI 2.48 to 5.61) versus in Pakistan, advancing age (2.33, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.40 for 70 years and over vs 40-49 years), higher waist circumference (2.15, 95% CI 1.42 to 3.25) for Q2-Q3 and 2.14, 95% CI 1.50 to 3.06 for Q3 and above), statin use (2.43, 95% CI 1.84 to 3.22), and higher levels of triglyceride (1.01, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.02 per 5 mg/dL increase). A lower odds of CMM was associated with being physically active (0.75, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.97). A weak inverted J-shaped association between International Wealth Index and CMM was found (p for non-linear=0.058), suggesting higher risk in the middle than higher or lower socioeconomic strata. CONCLUSIONS: CMM is highly prevalent in rural South Asians affecting one in four individuals with hypertension. There is an urgent need for strategies to concomitantly manage hypertension, cardiometabolic comorbid conditions and associated determinants in South Asia.