Medicine
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This repository contains the published and unpublished research of the Faculty of Medicine by the staff members of the faculty
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Item Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: The potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change(Sri Lanka Medical Association, 2018) Ediriweera, D.S.; Diggle, P.J.; Kasturiratne, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Gunawardena, N.K.; Jayamanne, S.F.; Isbister, J.K.; Dawson, A.; Lalloo, D.G.; de Silva, H.J.INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail. METHODS: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165,665 individuals living in 44,136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and due to recall bias amongst survey respondents RESULTS: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence was highest during November to December followed by March to May and August, but this varied between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk-factor. Low relative humidity levels was associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite of burden of 35,086 (95% CI: 4 202 a€" 69,232) during the next 25 to 50 years. CONCLUSION: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower than expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.Item Development of a Snakebite risk map for Sri Lanka(Sri Lanka Medical Association, 2016) Ediriweera, D.S.; Kasturiratne, A.; Pathmeswaran, A.; Gunawardena, N.K.; Wijayawickrama, B.A.; Jayamanne, S.F.; Isbister, G.K.; Dawson, A.; Giorgi, E.; Diggle, P.J.; Lalloo, D.G.; de Silva, H.J.INTRODUCTION: Snakebite is a public health problem in Sri Lanka and about 37,000 patients are treated in government hospitals annually. At present, health care resources which are required to manage snakebite are distributed based on the administrative boundaries, rather than based on scientific risk assessment. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to develop a snakebite risk map for Sri Lanka. METHOD: Epidemiological data was obtained from a community-based island-wide survey. The sample was distributed equally among the nine provinces. 165,665 participants (0.8%of the country’s population) living in 1118 Grama Niladhari divisions were surveyed. Generalized linear and generalized additive models were used for exploratory data analysis. Model-based geostatistics was used to determine the geographical distribution of snakebites. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method was used to obtain parameter estimates and plug-in spatial predictions were obtained. Probability contour maps (PCM) were developed to demonstrate the spatial variation in the probability that local incidence does or does not exceed national snakebite incidence. RESULTS: Individual point estimate snakebite incidence map and PCM were developed to demonstrate the national incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka. Snakebite hotspots and cold spots were identified in relation to the national snakebite incidence rate. Risk maps showed a within-country spatial variation in snakebites. CONCLUSIONS: The developed risk maps provide useful information for healthcare decision makers to allocate resources to manage snakebite in Sri Lanka.