NRCASS 2018
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/19757
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Item Time Series Modeling on Monthly Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka A Comparative study of Alternative Approaches(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Dharasana, C.; Kurukulasooriya, N.Tourism plays a vital role in many economies in the world and no exception for Sri Lanka. Exploring of potential tourist arrivals is significant for both future planning in tourist industry and related services. Therefore, regular monitoring of tourist arrivals is vital. Kurukulasooriya & Lelwala (2014), Konarasinghe, (2016) and Gnanapragasam & Cooray (2016) are different approaches in this context in Sri Lanka. Changing pattern of tourism demand appeals forecasting models in different time horizons. Thus, this study address this knowledge gap as the research problem with comparing of two different time series techniques with latest data. The main objective of this research is to reveal the most suitable forecasts for future tourist arrivals in a comparative edge. Current study has been entirely based on monthly foreign tourist arrivals. Annual reports of Sri Lanka Tourist Authority provides relevant data and information. Time horizon for the current research covered from January 2009 to August 2018. Linear trend pattern is most suitable for seasonally adjusted data and thus month to month increase of tourist arrivals are approximately 1525 heads per month. This increasing rate can be used by the decision makers in the tourism sector for their future strategic planning. The multiplicative classical decomposition and the Holt Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing model with seasonality were employed for forecasting. Performance of the various models were evaluated using ex-post forecast accuracy which was evaluated by means of MAPE, MPE, and RMSE. Comparatively multiplicative classical decomposition model outperform multiplicative Holt-Winter’s method and this is contrary to the existing literature in Sri Lankan tourism. This may be due to the recent changing pattern of tourist arrivals. Positive impact of seasonality is preferred from December to March and the months of August and September. The maximum seasonal increment is 30 percent for these months which is reported in December. There is a negative seasonal impact for remaining months in the year. Six months ahead forecasts were generated through Multiplicative Classical Decomposition. The seasonal effect of tourism must be addressed in policy agenda under the tourism development planning and forecasting models are required continuous updates.Item Study of the Tourist’s Satisfaction with regard to Hospitality in Southern Tourist Zone in Sri Lanka (Special Reference to Mirissa Tourist Destination)(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Chamara Premathilake, H.D.P.; Kulathunga, K.A.S.M.; Wasana, S.G.S.; Jayathialaka, H.B.T.P.Tourism is one of the largest industry which is contributed to flowing foreign exchange to the Sri Lanka. In that hence, tourism is domain phenomenon that has been caused to create the economic and financial activities, development of infrastructure facilities and changing of the cultural background of the area. Within this study mainly focuses on to identify the tourist’s satisfaction with regard to hospitality in Mirissa Tourist destination. It belongs to Matara district in Sri Lanka and 5 56 45 N Longitude and 80 27 35E. In this case mainly, primary data were used to analysis. Purposive sample method is used to gathering data and Questionnaire and Observation methods were used to collected data. There were 1500 of international and Domestic tourist include to collect data. SPSS and Minitab software used to analysis of data. The 07 factors that have been utilized to prove research topic 05 were accepted and 02 was rejected. Every 05 factors (Recreation Activities, Price range, Cuisine, Accommodations and Transport) belong to value above (0.7) and the factor was rejected is sanitary facilities and hospitality were belonging less than (0.7). In order to observations could be seen most tourists have fully satisfaction about the hospitality. Mirissa is highly crowded tourist area but, there is no enough sanitary facilities which international tourists are required. Even though have some facilities those were not maintain and cleaned well. Most of the tourists are not satisfied with the hospitality of the Sri LankansItem Non-Governmental Organizations in the Process of Empowerment of Livelihood Activities in Rural Areas in Sri Lanka(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Panampitiya, W.M.G.N.Livelihood activities of individuals directly affect to the level of income and economic stability of a household. Therefore, it is significant to have supportive mechanisms in the community to empower the capacities and abilities of people in particularly in rural areas. Non – Governmental Organizations (NGOs) is one of significant alternative body in the modern scenario of development path. One of significant working area of NGOs is to empower livelihood of households. Accordingly, main intentions of this study were to identify the programmes of NGOs in the process of livelihood empowerment and to analyze the effects of programmes which have been implemented by NGOs for the uplifting sustainability of standards of living of the people. The empirical study was conducted in two Grama Niladari Divisions of Nawagaththegama Divisional Secretariat Division in Sri Lanka. This study has based on survey method and functional method. Data were collected from 50 households based on purposive sampling method. Questionnaires was used as primary data collection technique. Both open ended and closed ended questions were included in the questionnaire. Programmes related to paddy and crop cultivations, animal husbandry, employment, management of household expenditure and savings and also community effects of them were analyzed critically through this study. NGO programmes in the studied rural area to enhance the capacity and skills related to income generating opportunities had positively influenced to uplift economic stability of their household. Based on the findings, it has suggested that programmes related to empower human potentials and skills to sustain livelihood of people are significant to introduce rather than focusing social welfare and effective integrated approach between state and NGO sector is important in order to absorb full potentials of community members into development discourse. Finally, this study signifies the importance of introducing integrated intervention between government and NGOs with an approach to participatory development which offers concrete answers to the challenges related to livelihood of peopleItem The impact of less English knowledge of the state University students (with special reference to University of Kelaniya )(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Amarasinghe, A.L.R.P.English language plays an important role. It’s not only an international language, but essential language for communication across the world. It’s an important as much as if we go anywhere across the globe. English is the most prominent language which widely accepted all today. Today all the books, magazines and journals related to higher education are in English. When we are concerned about Sri Lanka we can see the majority of the state university students are less knowledgeable about English knowledge. So this research was studied to know the impact of less English knowledge among the state university students with special reference to University of Kelaniya. The data were collected under simple random sampling method using questionnaires included a sampling of data of 50. In this paper, in accordance with the central trend measurements, the data were compiled using mean, median, mode and graphs. At the time, 90% of the students of the faculty of Science, 85% of the faculty of commerce and management showed that they are ideal in English knowledge. About 60% of the faculty of humanities and about 35% of the social sciences were vocal and instrumental in the English language. Here too, the knowledge of the English language of the faculty of social sciences was at a low level. The information contained in this domain was living in the rural areas of the province, and since there was not enough facilities for improving the English language. Most of the students who are at the highest educational level in the faculty of social sciences and the faculty of humanities who are living in the vicinity of Colombo. Students who had been using English language since their school time have the capability to do their studies well in the university environment. Adopting English as a compulsory subject and placing English education in rural schools same as in Colombo will be a timely solution to the unemployment problemItem The Problems faced by undergraduates when using the university library system (with special reference to University of Kelaniya)(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Thilakarathna, D.The library is the store of the knowledge. Every educational institution like schools, universities has a library. Is there an increase of using library with the language literacy? is the research problem. Therefore, main focus of this study is to examine the aims of using the library of students and whether they are successful for the students. In this study, 100 students were selected that include 25 students from each faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities, Sciences and Commerce and Management. This survey is based on the clustered sampling method and the data analysis has done using the SPSS software. According to the findings, most students largely use the library only for their educational tasks. 61% of the undergraduates have expressed that the time period given by the library is not enough for their educational tasks and 39% of the undergraduates are agree with the existing time period of the books. 62% of the undergraduates are combined with the language literacy and some of students are unable to engage with the language literacy. 51% of the undergraduates are agree with the support given by the non-academic staff while 49% of the undergraduates did not satisfy with it. According to the Chi square analysis method, gender does not effect on efficiency of using the library. Most students select books depending on the language literacy. Thereby, the study provides strategic suggestions for university libraries to improve on their own university library system, by developing the infrastructure of the library. Then library will be able to increase the usage of the libraryItem A sociological study of community adaptation to climate related disasters (with special reference to flood in the Rathnapura MC area)(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Gunarathna, D.D.W.N.Climate induced natural disaster and its impacts are severe problem in the world. All the developed and developing countries directly affected by climate induced disasters. So adaptation is one of the major solutions for the reduction of the risk, and also that concept is very popular in developing countries. The people in many countries are already living with disasters, but they never consider about the risk of the disasters. Based on that situation, this research is arguing that, significant factors for community adaptation to disaster with special reference flood disaster in Rathnapura Municipal Council area, and the Rathnapura people’s perception about disasters. This research is an attempt to identify the community based adaptation to climate induced natural disasters by means of achieving main objectives. Firstly, it attempts to identify the socio-economic indicators and proactive adaptation measures influence for flood in Rathnapura area. Secondly, the research examines the relationship between socio economic indicators and proactive adaptation measures. Thirdly, it identifies the people’s perception on flood hazard. This research based on case study. Therefore, five GN divisions which was selected from the study area, Batugedara, Angammana, Rathnapura Town, Muwagama and Dewalayagawa.150 households were selected from each GN division as the sample size. Household questionnaire survey and field observations are the main methods which performed to collect data. According to the correlation analysis, significant factors for community adaptation to flood disaster were identified. In the analysis, correlation of the socio economic variables were measured by using SPSS statistic software. According to the correlation between proactive adaptation level and selected socio economic variables the case study reveals that, people adaptation level is best and but adaptation reasons are vary with location to location. The resulted of proactive adaptation measures have strong relationship with socio economic factors, such as Housing condition r=.739 and distance to town r=.719. Result of people’s perception analysis regarding flood revealed, Flood disaster is not serious problem for the Rathnapura local people, because people who living in flood prone areas they are adaptation capacity are higher than the other people. The conclusions of this research identified factors that determined the proactive deferred within study area and also among localities.as a result of that, illustrate, Dewalayagaawa GN was specific to distance to town, Muwagama GN division people were specific to distance to relations houses, Batugedara was specific to distance to town, Rathnapura town was housing conditions and Angammana was availability of infrastructure. When considered about types of adaptation mostly Rathnapura MC area people are followed proactive adaptation. And also they are less going to reactive adaptation. because they believe that, proactive adaptation method are best mechanism for prevent the flood disaster.Item Maternal factors which are affecting for the low birth weight(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Gamage, L.K.; Wijesinghe, W.A.N.D.The intervention in the time period of pregnancy and early childhood plays a prominent role in order to fulfill our wishes on Sri Lankan child population. Maternal protection during the pregnancy period is crucial as it directly affects to the development of the child fatality. In relation to study, child’s body weight at birth is considered as body mass Index (BMI) for the proper growth of the child the birth must be at least 2500g and births below 2500g weight is considered as low birth weight and those kids may not properly develop and immune to disease are in low level. It has taken Galle District Mahamodara maternity hospital pregnant mothers who delivered their babies on February 2017 as the population. According to that it has selected 289 pregnant in line with stratified random sampling method and gathered primary data with a questionnaire. The relevant data has been collected day after the babies’ birth and continued for the entire February month. The selected population comprises of 4 wards of post-delivery and samples were collected in line with the percentage representing every ward. Following are the identified independent variables Mother’s nutrition, Average family income, Employment of mother, Number of children mother feeds, Mother’s age, Number of family members, Mother’s educational level, Diabetic condition of mother, and High blood pressure condition of the mother. The dependent variable in the research is the weight of the children. Analyzes were done by using SPSS 10.1 software. According to the study multiple regression analysis has been conducted using an independent variables in order to describe dependent variable, the “child’s birth weight”. Y=𝛽0+𝛽𝑖𝑥𝑖+⋯……………+𝛽𝑘𝑥𝑘+𝜀" i = 1,2,3,……………..,k ' In line with research estimated multiple regression is shown below, BW = 1558.406+ 412.371 BMI+95.648 EL – 218.397 DC' The mother’s nutrition, mother’s educational level, mother’s diabetic condition variables have been identified that affects to child’s birth weight using multiple regression. Considering the studies carried out in different districts in Sri Lanka the above factors proves true. To minimize these negative impacts it is important to launching promotional programs awareness workshops on maternity nutrition, Identifying malnutrition and sick mothers and conduct special medical clinics for them and make aware the family members on pregnancy safety and nutritional needsItem Maternal factors which are affecting for the low birth weight(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Gamage, L.K.; Wijesinghe, W.A.N.D.The intervention in the time period of pregnancy and early childhood plays a prominent role in order to fulfill our wishes on Sri Lankan child population. Maternal protection during the pregnancy period is crucial as it directly affects to the development of the child fatality. In relation to study, child’s body weight at birth is considered as body mass Index (BMI) for the proper growth of the child the birth must be at least 2500g and births below 2500g weight is considered as low birth weight and those kids may not properly develop and immune to disease are in low level. It has taken Galle District Mahamodara maternity hospital pregnant mothers who delivered their babies on February 2017 as the population. According to that it has selected 289 pregnant in line with stratified random sampling method and gathered primary data with a questionnaire. The relevant data has been collected day after the babies’ birth and continued for the entire February month. The selected population comprises of 4 wards of post-delivery and samples were collected in line with the percentage representing every ward. Following are the identified independent variables Mother’s nutrition, Average family income, Employment of mother, Number of children mother feeds, Mother’s age, Number of family members, Mother’s educational level, Diabetic condition of mother, and High blood pressure condition of the mother. The dependent variable in the research is the weight of the children. Analyzes were done by using SPSS 10.1 software. According to the study multiple regression analysis has been conducted using an independent variables in order to describe dependent variable, the “child’s birth weight”. Y=𝛽0+𝛽𝑖𝑥𝑖+⋯……………+𝛽𝑘𝑥𝑘+𝜀" i = 1,2,3,……………..,k ' In line with research estimated multiple regression is shown below, BW = 1558.406+ 412.371 BMI+95.648 EL – 218.397 DC' The mother’s nutrition, mother’s educational level, mother’s diabetic condition variables have been identified that affects to child’s birth weight using multiple regression. Considering the studies carried out in different districts in Sri Lanka the above factors proves true. To minimize these negative impacts it is important to launching promotional programs awareness workshops on maternity nutrition, Identifying malnutrition and sick mothers and conduct special medical clinics for them and make aware the family members on pregnancy safety and nutritional needsItem Maternal factors which are affecting for the low birth weight(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Gamage, L.K.; Wijesinghe, W.A.N.D.The intervention in the time period of pregnancy and early childhood plays a prominent role in order to fulfill our wishes on Sri Lankan child population. Maternal protection during the pregnancy period is crucial as it directly affects to the development of the child fatality. In relation to study, child’s body weight at birth is considered as body mass Index (BMI) for the proper growth of the child the birth must be at least 2500g and births below 2500g weight is considered as low birth weight and those kids may not properly develop and immune to disease are in low level. It has taken Galle District Mahamodara maternity hospital pregnant mothers who delivered their babies on February 2017 as the population. According to that it has selected 289 pregnant in line with stratified random sampling method and gathered primary data with a questionnaire. The relevant data has been collected day after the babies’ birth and continued for the entire February month. The selected population comprises of 4 wards of post-delivery and samples were collected in line with the percentage representing every ward. Following are the identified independent variables Mother’s nutrition, Average family income, Employment of mother, Number of children mother feeds, Mother’s age, Number of family members, Mother’s educational level, Diabetic condition of mother, and High blood pressure condition of the mother. The dependent variable in the research is the weight of the children. Analyzes were done by using SPSS 10.1 software. According to the study multiple regression analysis has been conducted using an independent variables in order to describe dependent variable, the “child’s birth weight”. Y=𝛽0+𝛽𝑖𝑥𝑖+⋯……………+𝛽𝑘𝑥𝑘+𝜀" i = 1,2,3,……………..,k ' In line with research estimated multiple regression is shown below, BW = 1558.406+ 412.371 BMI+95.648 EL – 218.397 DC' The mother’s nutrition, mother’s educational level, mother’s diabetic condition variables have been identified that affects to child’s birth weight using multiple regression. Considering the studies carried out in different districts in Sri Lanka the above factors proves true. To minimize these negative impacts it is important to launching promotional programs awareness workshops on maternity nutrition, Identifying malnutrition and sick mothers and conduct special medical clinics for them and make aware the family members on pregnancy safety and nutritional needsItem Factors affecting on savings behavior of undergraduates (special reference to the undergraduate of University of Kelaniya)(4th National Research Conference on Applied Social Statistics, Social Statistics Students’ Association, Department of Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2018) Senapala, K.A.D.L.Y.M.Savings are one of the major factors affecting towards a successful journey of the country. By the year of 2017, increase in the gross domestic product is recorded as 29.3% in Sri Lanka. There are so many researches about savings based on household and employees. But the number of researches which are done on university students’ savings, is low. This research objective is to investigate the factors affecting the savings behavior of undergraduates based on the University of Kelaniya. Primary data was collected using 100 questionnaires from undergraduates at the University of Kelaniya. The sample was selected based on a step sampling method. Primary data collected on the basis of questionnaires and secondary data which were collected from the Central Bank Report and the Internet. SPSS and Excel are used as software for organize to data. Data analyzed as mean, median, variance, factor analysis and chi square test. Data representations were performed using charts and tables. According to the information provided by the research, 74% of the sample will be spend on savings and 81% of the students will save money by Self Control. 35.4% of students spend on savings in preferences of their parents and 16.9% decided to stay on their experiences. The research reveals that savings are depended on gender, the source of income and the average monthly income. 91% of the sample is already experiencing the benefits of savings and a 99% recognizes that a strong future requires savings. Finally, the conclusion of this research is savings of undergraduate is depending on experience and attitudes of undergraduate not only undergraduate income
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