Abstract:
The Indo-Pacific is destined to be the region of the world with the most great-power
competition in the 21st century. States will be seeking to align with others, but conventional
models for alliances are outmoded in the context of modern competition. This paper provides
a necessary update to core concepts associated with alliances and other security relationships.
It examines strategies that underwrite competition and cooperation to provide better
understanding of emerging trends in the Indo-Pacific’s security relationships. The nature of
conflict and competition has evolved in ways that has made traditional conceptions of alliances
obsolete, forcing a necessary reexamination of security relationships in the present era.
Although conventional and nuclear conflict are still considerations, the broader application of
diplomatic, information, and economic power in interstate competition means that traditional
military alliances are ill-suited for the current strategic environment. Instead of focusing
simply on the binary “ally” or “non-ally,” this paper clarifies security relationships in the
context of modern competition by employing six key indicators: (1) common interests among
states; (2) unilateral policies directed at security relationships; (3) routine security engagement;
(4) negotiated policies; (5) negotiated instruments; and (6) negotiated alliance treaties. The
paper concludes that these indicators serve both as measures for security relationships as well
as tools for crafting strategic ends, ways, and means. It then uses examples of relationships in
the region, including those among the United States, Japan, Sri Lanka, the Republic of Korea,
the Philippines, and China to illustrate key points. It isolates a taxonomy of security
relationships under cooperation, alignment, and alliances, and suggests that alignments will be
the most important in shaping the Indo-Pacific in the 21st century. This research provides key
findings for states searching to build strategies for shaping security relationships in an
increasingly contested region
