Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: the detailed investigation in Sri Lanka

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. The current study aimed to evaluate the climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of local communities to dengue in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka. METHODS: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all MOH areas for dengue were calculated using the composite index approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. RESULTS: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: six variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: six variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the KMC MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy. CONCLUSIONS: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. Vector Controlling Entities are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management. KEYWORDS: Climate change; Dengue; Sri Lanka; Vulnerability.