Vaccination Coverage for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka: With and Without Age Stratification on Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Simulation

Abstract

Background: Vaccination against COVID-19 is as a key solution to interrupt its spread. This study aimed to describe the vaccination coverage required to stop the spread of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka using a mathematical modeling strategy. Materials & Methods: This longitudinal study used age-stratified and unstratified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models. Data on the population's age distribution were acquired from the census report of the Census and Statistics Center of Sri Lanka, consisting of groups: below 30, between 30-59, and over 60. Models with differential equations forecasted the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination based on parameter estimates and numerical simulation, assuming fixed population, infection, and recovery rates. Results: Simulations investigated how the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations varied according to the different vaccination coverages. According to the results, 75% vaccination coverage was required in the entire population of Sri Lanka to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 completely. The age-stratified SIR model showed that over 90% of vaccination coverage in each age group (below 30, between 30-59, and over 60) was required to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 in the country altogether. Conclusions: The number of COVID-19 infections in each age group of Sri Lanka reduces with the increase in vaccination coverage. As 75% vaccination coverage is required in Sri Lanka to interrupt the transmission of the disease, precise vaccination coverage measurement is essential to assess the successfulness of a vaccine campaign and control COVID-19.