Statistics & Computer Science
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Item Proactive Dengue Management System Synergize by an Exponential Smoothing Model(Research & Development Centre for Mathematical Modelling,Department of Mathematics, University of Colombo,Sri Lanka, Department of Statistics & Computer Science,Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka., 2021) Wetthasinghe, W. A. U. K.; Attanayake, A. M. C. H.; Liyanage, U. P.; Perera, S. S. N.In a critical area like health sector centralized computer system helps to improve the efficiency of the health system. In particular, controlling an epidemic is usually difficult in developing countries. In this study we introduce a multi-platform, centralized proactive management system to manage dengue controlling activities in Sri Lanka. The system make common platform (ProDMS) for all sectors who contribute their services for mitigating dengue [1]. We mainly focused to the special feature of the system which enhance the centralized property. Cross platform environment was developed under this feature as a bridge to connect researches and general public. ProDMS is a internet base web application and researches can plug their dengue forecasting models to the system and publish their outputs as graphs through the web system. The ProDMS web application, which consisting of plug and play system architecture concepts, fully support for any statistical or mathematical model to publish its results online. In this work we use one of the univariate time series modelling approaches; namely exponential smoothing to plug with the system. This research helps to enhance efficiency of Dengue controlling process and support to generalize centralization.Item Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method(Department of Statistics & Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2020) Attanayake, A. M. C. H.; Perera, S. S. N.COVID-19 is a pandemic which has spread to more than 200 countries. Its high transmission rate makes it difficult to control. To date, no specific treatment has been found as a cure for the disease. Therefore, prediction of COVID-19 cases provides a useful insight to mitigate the disease. This study aims to model and predict COVID-19 cases. Eight countries: Italy, New Zealand, the USA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa which are in different phases of COVID-19 distribution as well as in different socioeconomic and geographical characteristics were selected as test cases. The Alpha-Sutte Indicator approach was utilized as the modelling strategy. The capability of the approach in modelling COVID-19 cases over the ARIMA method was tested in the study. Data consist of accumulated COVID-19 cases present in the selected countries from the first day of the presence of cases to September 26, 2020. Ten percent of the data were used to validate the modelling approach. The analysis disclosed that the Alpha-Sutte modelling approach is appropriate in modelling cumulative COVID-19 cases over ARIMA by reporting 0.11%, 0.33%, 0.08%, 0.72%, 0.12%, 0.03%, 1.28%, and 0.08% of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the USA, Brazil, Italy, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa, respectively. Differences between forecasted and real cases of COVID-19 in the validation set were tested using the paired t-test. The differences were not statistically significant, revealing the effectiveness of the modelling approach. Thus, predictions were generated using the Alpha-Sutte approach for each country. Therefore, the Alpha-Sutte method can be recommended for short-term forecasting of cumulative COVID-19 incidences. The authorities in the health care sector and other administrators may use the predictions to control and manage the COVID-19 casesItem Factors associated with induction of labour and pregnancy outcomes in 14 healthcare facilities in Sri Lanka(Journal of Science 2019, Department of Statistics & Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, 2019) Gunawardana, J. R. N. A.; Perera, S. S. N.Induction of Labour (IOL) is an important practice that is carried out commonly in modern day obstetrics. In medium to large healthcare facilities in Sri Lanka, it is estimated that approximately 35.5% of all deliveries involve IOL. This research attempts to identify the factors that affect IOL and to assess the association between IOL and the pregnancy outcome. In this study, we considered 18309 women who were admitted to 14 healthcare facilities for delivery in 3 randomly selected provinces in Sri Lanka (Western, Southern and Eastern provinces), during July to October 2011. Multinomial Logistic Regression model (MLR) and Fuzzy Expert System (FES) were used to identify the factors that lead to IOL. The MLR model predicts IOL with a classification rate of 65.5% and the FES predicts IOL with an accuracy of 55.10%. 1Maternal age, number of previous caesarian sections,number of previous births, estimated gestational age, Pre-Eclampsia, number of previous pregnancies, Placenta Preavia, Abruption Placenta, total number of neonates delivered, birth weight and Maternal Severity Index (MSI) were identified as factors associated with IOL. Neonatal status after seven days of life can also be predicted using the developed FES. FES is predictive of IOL and birth outcome, where if the FES score is between 0.8570 and 0.8854, the patient will belong to the induced group and the baby would be alive after seven days of birth. This study concludes that, MLR and FES models can be used to predict IOL outcomes. These findings can be informative to healthcare providers when counselling women for labour induction and develop evidence-based protocols on IOL.