Predicting acute liver failure in dengue infection

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Dengue infections (Dl) have a diverse clinical spectrum ranging from asymptomatic illness to severe dengue. Unusual manifestations such as encephalitis, myocarditis, and acute liver failure (ALF) are increasingly recognised. AIMS: To describe the spectrum of liver dysfunction and identify possible predictors of ALF in DI Methods: Serologically confirmed patients with Dl admitted to university medical unit, Ragama from January 2009 to March 2010 were included. Data were obtained from patient records. Results: Out of 240 patients (maleifemale 57.7%:42.5%; mean age 35.6 years[SD 15.4 years]], 49(20.4%) had severe dengue, 164(68.3%) had dengue with warning signs and 27(11.2%) had dengue without warning signs. Abdominal pain, persistent nausea and vomiting (PNV), skin or mucosal bleeding, hepatomegaly and ascites was present in 52.1%J 38.3%, 16.2%, 50% and 11.7% cases respectively. Deranged AST or ALT(ASTALT), serum bilirubin(SB), alkaline phosphatase(ALP), gamma glutamyl transpeptide(GGT), and 1NR were observed in 86.7%, 8.3%, 7.5%, 25% and 10% of patients respectively. Of the 240 patients 41(17.1%) had ASTALT>1000 IU and 199(82.9%) had ASTALT<1000 1U. Only 16/41 patients with ASTALT>1000 IU developed ALF while none from the ASTALT<1000 IU group developed ALF. Presence of 2 or more of elevated SB, elevated ALP or PNV predicted the development of ALF with 93.8% sensitivity, 98.7% specificity, 83.3% positive predictive value and 99% negative predictive value withp<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: ASTALT<1000 IU excluded patients at risk of ALF. Presence of 2 or more of PNV, elevated SB or ALP in patients with Dl may indicate impending ALF. This needs further validation in a larger population.