NRCASS 2018http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/197572024-03-29T05:01:43Z2024-03-29T05:01:43ZTime Series Modeling on Monthly Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka A Comparative study of Alternative ApproachesDharasana, C.Kurukulasooriya, N.http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/198082019-01-31T03:28:23Z2018-01-01T00:00:00ZTime Series Modeling on Monthly Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka A Comparative study of Alternative Approaches
Dharasana, C.; Kurukulasooriya, N.
Tourism plays a vital role in many economies in the world and no exception for Sri Lanka. Exploring of potential tourist arrivals is significant for both future planning in tourist industry and related services. Therefore, regular monitoring of tourist arrivals is vital. Kurukulasooriya & Lelwala (2014), Konarasinghe, (2016) and Gnanapragasam & Cooray (2016) are different approaches in this context in Sri Lanka. Changing pattern of tourism demand appeals forecasting models in different time horizons. Thus, this study address this knowledge gap as the research problem with comparing of two different time series techniques with latest data. The main objective of this research is to reveal the most suitable forecasts for future tourist arrivals in a comparative edge. Current study has been entirely based on monthly foreign tourist arrivals. Annual reports of Sri Lanka Tourist Authority provides relevant data and information. Time horizon for the current research covered from January 2009 to August 2018. Linear trend pattern is most suitable for seasonally adjusted data and thus month to month increase of tourist arrivals are approximately 1525 heads per month. This increasing rate can be used by the decision makers in the tourism sector for their future strategic planning. The multiplicative classical decomposition and the Holt Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing model with seasonality were employed for forecasting. Performance of the various models were evaluated using ex-post forecast accuracy which was evaluated by means of MAPE, MPE, and RMSE. Comparatively multiplicative classical decomposition model outperform multiplicative Holt-Winter’s method and this is contrary to the existing literature in Sri Lankan tourism. This may be due to the recent changing pattern of tourist arrivals. Positive impact of seasonality is preferred from December to March and the months of August and September. The maximum seasonal increment is 30 percent for these months which is reported in December. There is a negative seasonal impact for remaining months in the year. Six months ahead forecasts were generated through Multiplicative Classical Decomposition. The seasonal effect of tourism must be addressed in policy agenda under the tourism development planning and forecasting models are required continuous updates.
2018-01-01T00:00:00ZStudy of the Tourist’s Satisfaction with regard to Hospitality in Southern Tourist Zone in Sri Lanka (Special Reference to Mirissa Tourist Destination)Chamara Premathilake, H.D.P.Kulathunga, K.A.S.M.Wasana, S.G.S.Jayathialaka, H.B.T.P.http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/198062019-01-31T03:24:25Z2018-01-01T00:00:00ZStudy of the Tourist’s Satisfaction with regard to Hospitality in Southern Tourist Zone in Sri Lanka (Special Reference to Mirissa Tourist Destination)
Chamara Premathilake, H.D.P.; Kulathunga, K.A.S.M.; Wasana, S.G.S.; Jayathialaka, H.B.T.P.
Tourism is one of the largest industry which is contributed to flowing foreign exchange to the Sri Lanka. In that hence, tourism is domain phenomenon that has been caused to create the economic and financial activities, development of infrastructure facilities and changing of the cultural background of the area. Within this study mainly focuses on to identify the tourist’s satisfaction with regard to hospitality in Mirissa Tourist destination. It belongs to Matara district in Sri Lanka and 5 56 45 N Longitude and 80 27 35E. In this case mainly, primary data were used to analysis. Purposive sample method is used to gathering data and Questionnaire and Observation methods were used to collected data. There were 1500 of international and Domestic tourist include to collect data. SPSS and Minitab software used to analysis of data. The 07 factors that have been utilized to prove research topic 05 were accepted and 02 was rejected. Every 05 factors (Recreation Activities, Price range, Cuisine, Accommodations and Transport) belong to value above (0.7) and the factor was rejected is sanitary facilities and hospitality were belonging less than (0.7). In order to observations could be seen most tourists have fully satisfaction about the hospitality. Mirissa is highly crowded tourist area but, there is no enough sanitary facilities which international tourists are required. Even though have some facilities those were not maintain and cleaned well. Most of the tourists are not satisfied with the hospitality of the Sri Lankans
2018-01-01T00:00:00ZNon-Governmental Organizations in the Process of Empowerment of Livelihood Activities in Rural Areas in Sri LankaPanampitiya, W.M.G.N.http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/198042019-01-31T03:20:36Z2018-01-01T00:00:00ZNon-Governmental Organizations in the Process of Empowerment of Livelihood Activities in Rural Areas in Sri Lanka
Panampitiya, W.M.G.N.
Livelihood activities of individuals directly affect to the level of income and economic stability of a household. Therefore, it is significant to have supportive mechanisms in the community to empower the capacities and abilities of people in particularly in rural areas. Non – Governmental Organizations (NGOs) is one of significant alternative body in the modern scenario of development path. One of significant working area of NGOs is to empower livelihood of households. Accordingly, main intentions of this study were to identify the programmes of NGOs in the process of livelihood empowerment and to analyze the effects of programmes which have been implemented by NGOs for the uplifting sustainability of standards of living of the people. The empirical study was conducted in two Grama Niladari Divisions of Nawagaththegama Divisional Secretariat Division in Sri Lanka. This study has based on survey method and functional method. Data were collected from 50 households based on purposive sampling method. Questionnaires was used as primary data collection technique. Both open ended and closed ended questions were included in the questionnaire. Programmes related to paddy and crop cultivations, animal husbandry, employment, management of household expenditure and savings and also community effects of them were analyzed critically through this study. NGO programmes in the studied rural area to enhance the capacity and skills related to income generating opportunities had positively influenced to uplift economic stability of their household. Based on the findings, it has suggested that programmes related to empower human potentials and skills to sustain livelihood of people are significant to introduce rather than focusing social welfare and effective integrated approach between state and NGO sector is important in order to absorb full potentials of community members into development discourse. Finally, this study signifies the importance of introducing integrated intervention between government and NGOs with an approach to participatory development which offers concrete answers to the challenges related to livelihood of people
2018-01-01T00:00:00ZThe impact of less English knowledge of the state University students (with special reference to University of Kelaniya )Amarasinghe, A.L.R.P.http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/198022019-01-30T10:24:04Z2018-01-01T00:00:00ZThe impact of less English knowledge of the state University students (with special reference to University of Kelaniya )
Amarasinghe, A.L.R.P.
English language plays an important role. It’s not only an international language, but essential language for communication across the world. It’s an important as much as if we go anywhere across the globe. English is the most prominent language which widely accepted all today. Today all the books, magazines and journals related to higher education are in English. When we are concerned about Sri Lanka we can see the majority of the state university students are less knowledgeable about English knowledge. So this research was studied to know the impact of less English knowledge among the state university students with special reference to University of Kelaniya. The data were collected under simple random sampling method using questionnaires included a sampling of data of 50. In this paper, in accordance with the central trend measurements, the data were compiled using mean, median, mode and graphs. At the time, 90% of the students of the faculty of Science, 85% of the faculty of commerce and management showed that they are ideal in English knowledge. About 60% of the faculty of humanities and about 35% of the social sciences were vocal and instrumental in the English language. Here too, the knowledge of the English language of the faculty of social sciences was at a low level. The information contained in this domain was living in the rural areas of the province, and since there was not enough facilities for improving the English language. Most of the students who are at the highest educational level in the faculty of social sciences and the faculty of humanities who are living in the vicinity of Colombo. Students who had been using English language since their school time have the capability to do their studies well in the university environment. Adopting English as a compulsory subject and placing English education in rural schools same as in Colombo will be a timely solution to the unemployment problem
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